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South African housing should miss crisis
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The impact of the current crisis on South Africa, including its property market, could potentially be far less than on many other countries around the world, says Nedbank's chief economist, Dr Dennis Dykes, in a statement circulated on Tuesday.
Dykes notes that countries with extremely high household debt to income ratios, such as the UK and Australia, which are currently both at 160%, face far bigger risks than South Africa, at 76%.
"Banks in these countries are reluctant and unable to grant more credit to consumers, which will affect all aspects of these economies, particularly property prices," he says.
On South African property prices, he says the current weakness is probably more cyclical than structural.
"In other words, the global crisis is not really the cause of the slowdown in our property market. Higher interest rates, coupled with the huge gains in house prices over last few years, were already having a cooling effect on our property market," explains Dykes.
"There is also a good possibility that interest rates in South Africa will decrease over the next few months, as global and local inflation slows. This will bring confidence back into the local housing market. However, a strong recovery is unlikely in the short term," he adds.
Dykes also says that none of the large South African banks have direct exposure to the subprime market in the US.
"Although there could be some counterparty losses resulting from bank failures elsewhere, it is likely that the direct impact will be very minimal. The consolidation that took place in the South African banking industry a few years ago has also left the remaining players in very strong financial positions.
"Finally, while not expressly stated by the South African government, it would in all likelihood back up the banking system in the unlikely event that this was required," concludes Dykes. – I-Net Bridge
Published By: Dr Dennis Dykes
Authored By: I-Net Bridge
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